As SNAP Shrinks, What’s the Future of Food Aid in America?

Dan Gorenstein (DG): Enrollment in America’s food stamp program, otherwise known as SNAP, has fallen by 5 million people in just the last year. That’s the biggest drop in three decades.

Conservatives like Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins say that’s a sign that recent reforms are working.

Brooke Rollins: Before we had no accountability on any of these programs. We are now requiring accountability.

DG: Last summer, Republicans added requirements to SNAP that they say will reduce waste and move people more quickly toward self-sufficiency. 

Others argue those new rules are depriving many folks of help that they desperately need.

John Waxler (JW): I’m just falling farther behind and farther behind.  I can see myself going down the slope, you know.

DG: Today, we look at the upheaval happening with America’s food stamp program and meet one man living with the consequences.

From the studio at the Leonard Davis Institute at the University of Pennsylvania, I’m Dan Gorenstein. This is Tradeoffs.

*****

DG: When I met John Waxler this July, he was a man in crisis.

JW: I’ve always been pretty healthy, but it’s hard to do anything now.

DG: This past winter, doctors diagnosed the 64-year-old with Stage 4 colon cancer that has now spread to his liver. A soft spoken handyman with a penchant for pro wrestling, John’s world was suddenly rocked.  

He’s now living off about $1,000 bucks a month in disability payments, just a fifth of what he used to earn, and it goes fast.

JW:  The hospital’s $10 of gas each time I go there, you know, and to get the chemo. And then, then I pay for a room and, and it’s just like a, it’s like a back porch and really don’t have AC or nothing. We call them Florida rooms down here. Basically costs me like $700 before food to even live.

DG: John hoped he could stretch that money if he could join the 37 million Americans getting a hand from the government with groceries.

To get that help, John needed to prove that he meets stricter requirements added to the SNAP program by Republicans as part of their Big Beautiful Bill.

But he could not do that alone.

Lori Ventura (LV): This is a man that comes in our clinic and is happy, you know, he makes me smile every day. The least I can do is help get him, you know, some food. 

DG: Lori Ventura runs operations for the Free Senior Health Clinic in New Port Richey, Florida, just outside Tampa where John gets care.

Lori sees a lot of their patients struggling to afford food, with prices up a whopping 30% in the past few years. She knows that as modest as SNAP can be — monthly payments run about 190 bucks per person on average — it can be a lifeline.

LV: This isn’t something people can survive on but they need it. John needs it.

DG: Lori’s got the intense energy and close cropped hair of someone with little time to waste.

And yet, going down byzantine bureaucratic rabbit holes is her new normal.

LV:  We treat 1,374 patients, and I’m spending more time now, in 14 years of being in this clinic, in trying to help them get the peanuts of Medicaid and food stamps. 

DG: Lori got to work this spring helping John, who has no computer at home, sign up for both programs. They uploaded income and social security statements and a letter from John’s doctor. 

The pair expected to hear back in a few weeks. It had been three months by the time I first met John.  

DG: Last summer, Congressional Republicans added a host of hoops for people to jump through to get — and keep — their food stamps.

Work requirements have been around SNAP for decades, but now they apply to people who were previously exempt, including the homeless, kids aging out of foster care… and older adults like John in their late 50s and early 60s. 

On the one hand, John says he gets why Republicans wanted to try to button up a program whose spending soared to an all-time high during the pandemic.

On the other, John never imagined he would get caught up in this crackdown.

JW:  I just figured with, you know, doctor’s notes and everything, it, you know, they would be quicker than just the normal, individual or something.

DG: John and Lori assumed John’s case would be a slam dunk for a medical exemption, given that cancer diagnosis. The two are at a total loss for what’s happening.

LV: We’ve spent weeks working together, creating these accounts, logging into these accounts, searching every part of it to see if there’s something we’re missing. Today I did see on there that it gives you, “How are we doing?” And I let them know how they’re doing. However, they cap you at 45 characters. [laughs]

DG: States are supposed to process applications within 30 days, but these new reforms have officials worried about moving too fast.

They now face huge financial penalties under the Big Beautiful Bill for making too many mistakes like letting ineligible people onto the rolls. 

It’s unclear what’s holding up John’s case. The state of Florida declined to comment.

But anecdotes like this and from across the country suggest states are spooked. Earlier this year the New York Times reported staff in Phoenix, Arizona now ask homeless people for proof of their panhandling income.

DG: While John waits, his life is unraveling. Cancer has decimated the man’s body. He’s lost 45 pounds since February [and] deals with near constant back pain and bowel troubles. Just getting out the door now takes two hours.

I ask him how he’s doing given everything.

DG:  I don’t ask this question lightly. Are you scared?

JW: Not as much as I should be probably. I just, uh maybe I’m not smart enough to be scared or I don’t know what it is, but, I’ve just got to bless God for every day I get, you know? What can you do? 

DG: What John does, he says, is put one foot in front of the other. For food, sometimes he can get dinner at his girlfriend’s. Other times, it’s food banks and soup kitchens.

JW:  You know, you get some donuts from this place and some macaroni from that place, but you know, then you still gotta have something to go with it, so you know, it’s just hard every day.

DG: John’s doctors have told him he really needs a high protein diet, that much more important because of his punishing chemotherapy.

So as hard as it can be to lean on friends and family, John continues to do it.

JW:  When you can’t contribute and it gets thrown in your face all the time, you know,  I was always the one helping everybody else, I’ve never been the dependent one, you know? And you just feel bad for that.

DG: All John’s skills, installing drywall, remodeling bathrooms, fixing cars, are useless now.

He’s frustrated. He has no idea how long the help he’s getting is going to last. 

JW: Now even where I rent the room, I’m three months behind and  I’m just falling farther behind and farther behind and just, I can see myself going down the slope, you know.

DG: And I ask this with all due respect, how the fuck are you gonna do this? 

JW: I don’t know. I don’t have an answer. That’s what’s scary. That’s the part that’s scary, you know, not having that answer. 

DG: Across Florida, SNAP enrollment has plummeted by more than 500,000 people since the Big Beautiful Bill became law, one of the steepest declines in the entire country.

When we come back, we turn to the policy experts to help us unpack this pivotal moment for the SNAP program, and John finally gets an answer.

BREAK

DG: Welcome back. Before the break, we heard about 64-year-old John Waxler’s struggle to get food stamps.

For this second half of the show, we’re bringing in Tradeoffs senior reporter Leslie Walker, who’s spoken with some half dozen experts, to put John’s story into larger context. Leslie, hello.

Leslie Walker (LW): Hey, Dan. How’s it going?

DG: So look, let’s start with the big number here — 5 million — that’s how much SNAP enrollment has dropped in just the last year.

These are, of course, early days. You and I both know data lags and I’m guessing it’s far too soon to know for certain what’s driving this decline. 

LW: Yeah, that’s right. There are certainly some theories.

The biggest one being those stricter work requirements. The Congressional Budget Office projected they would cut the rolls by about 2.5 million people.

Here’s what is certain, Dan. University of Colorado economist Chloe East says that a big chunk of people missing out are kids.

Chloe East (CE):  The data shows so far that over the last year, about one million fewer children are receiving SNAP than they did before.

LW: This is aid that, can help keep kids in school, land better jobs, stay healthier later in life.

CE:  Research shows really clearly that SNAP, especially for young kids, has huge long-run beneficial impacts on health and development.

LW: Chloe says the risk here is that so many kids could be losing out on help that pays these sorts of dividends.

DG: And what about for adults — what do we know about the health effects of SNAP for them?

LW: Yeah, the evidence here is less conclusive, for a variety of reasons, including that many adults cycle on and off SNAP.

What a lot of studies do make clear, Dan, is that going hungry — at any age — is bad for your health. It’s even linked with dying younger.

So the big question for all these adults like John Waxler now missing out on SNAP, is are they going to find enough food elsewhere?

DG: If not SNAP, then what? 

LW: Yes, that is the question. The answer, typically, is food banks, but they’re underwater too.

DG: How so?

LW: Well, just to give you a sense, Dan, here’s a quick round-up of recent news clips I read:

In Miami, the lines outside one food bank “have never been longer.”

The Greater Cleveland Food Bank is seeing “pandemic-level” demand.

And for one pantry in Allentown, Pennsylvania, out by you, where “summer is normally the slow season,” new clients are up 55%.

DG: So this is a huge wave of need that is surging right now. 

LW: Yeah. The cuts to SNAP, inflation, high food and gas prices … it’s all coming together at the same time.

And researchers told me the impact of all that on people is gonna be tougher than ever to measure. The Trump administration recently axed a major survey used to study this stuff. 

DG: Alright, Leslie. So we’ve just covered some of the upside of SNAP — the good it can do, especially for kids.

But I know Republicans in particular feel the SNAP program’s burning a lot of money that is at best wasteful and, at worst, fraudulent. That was a big driver of some of the reforms Congress passed in 2025.

Those are some pretty bold claims. What kind of data is there to support it?

LW: Sure, the big number conservatives hit is $10 billion.

That’s the total cost last year of what are considered ‘payment mistakes’ made by the state agencies who manage this federal food aid program.

Really, Dan, it’s a measure of paperwork errors.

DG: Errors like what?

LW: You know, failing to quickly catch someone’s income going up a bit or their work hours falling, life stuff that can affect how much aid someone is eligible for.

DG: And what about straight-up stone cold fraud, Leslie, like people forging applications? 

LW: That type of stuff is actually quite rare. The Department of Agriculture found that about 41,000 folks intentionally committed some type of fraud.

That’s about one-tenth of a percent of the entire pool of people on SNAP. 

DG: So, when Republicans talk about problems in SNAP, this is really less about outright fraud and more about like the leaky pipes here.

LW: Yes, and the folks who defend states here, they’ll tell you states often lack the resources — the tech, the staffing, the money — to do this work quickly and carefully.

It’s also a question of priorities. 

The way Joël McClurg, an anti-hunger advocate who once oversaw SNAP compliance for the state of Colorado, put it to me, if you’ve got to shade one way — toward accuracy or access — which way do you go?

Joël McClurg (JM):  I do believe states should always strive towards accuracy and be good stewards of the program, but we can’t kid ourselves into thinking the cost of these program errors are somehow equal to the actual cost of families not getting food and being hungry. It’s just not the same.

DG: And that cost, Joël is talking about there, Leslie, is the kind of cost that John Waxler is feeling: The pain of really struggling for an extra month or two or more while states triple check their work.

LW: Exactly. Now on the other end of the spectrum, sit people like Romina Boccia, who I spoke to, with the libertarian Cato Institute. Her take is look, this program has just gotten too big.

Letting these payment mistakes slide is one of many ways states and Congress have let SNAP spending swell. Congress had no choice but to crack down.

Romina Boccia (RB): When you make programs so expansive, I think individuals lose faith that those programs actually work towards helping the poor, and they see them more as a way to scam federal taxpayers.

LW: Until now, Romina told me, states had weak incentives to tighten things up. The dollars they dole out for SNAP are federal, so states, she said, treat this money differently than if it was coming out of their own budgets. 

The Big Beautiful Bill changes that in a major way. 

DG: You’re talking, Leslie, about these new financial penalties, the ones we mentioned before the break.

LW: That’s right. Here’s how they work. 

Republicans have set this new bar for how many payment mistakes a state can make. If states go over that limit, they have to start covering a chunk of the program with their own money. The more mistakes, the more dough that they owe.

DG: And how big are the tabs here that states might have to pick up?

LW: In some cases, huge. The state of Florida where John lives had an error rate this past year double the bar that Congress has set.

That would put them on the hook for almost $1 billion dollars in new SNAP costs starting next October, at a time when the state’s already facing a multibillion dollar deficit.

DG: $1 billion for a state is a huge amount of money. I’m guessing states are freaking out right now.

LW: Yes, I mean, it’s a wide spectrum. Some states have much lower error rates and much smaller programs and they’ll be fine. But a lot are not. 

According to estimates by the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, 36 states will owe some money starting next fall. And nearly half will owe $100 million or more.

DG: So Leslie, last question for you: Amid all this upheaval and uncertainty, where does this leave the SNAP program itself? What do the experts you talked to see when they look three to five years out?

LW: I mean some of the people I talked to, Dan, think this could be a breaking point for this federal program that’s been around for about 90 years. 

Those error penalties will just be too big. They could force some states to leave the program altogether.

DG: What would happen in those states?

LW: Well, in theory, they could create some local version of SNAP. Romina Boccia of the Cato Institute would welcome that kind of change.

RB: I think moving away from the federal government micromanaging what kinds of benefits people are eligible for towards a model where states can experiment with different approaches would, over the long term, be more effective.

LW: Defenders of SNAP, though, say the whole point of the program is to guarantee that anyone struggling anywhere in this country can get some help finding their next meal.

Joël McClurg from Colorado says to leave this in the hands of states would be disastrous.

JM:  States would have to operate at a fraction of what the current program is and that would just deeply entrench hunger to a point that I don’t think America has ever really seen before.

LW: That message, Dan — it’s coming from advocates, from governors, from mayors and they’re all hoping Washington will take action here. 

Congress is debating a provision to their big farm bill that would delay these state penalties by one year.

DG: Leslie Walker, thanks for your reporting here.

LW: You’re welcome, Dan.

DG: As for John Waxler in Florida, this August he finally got the message that he’d wanted. It took four months.

JW: Your application for food assistance is approved. You’re eligible for and it says, uh, $145 a month.

DG: The approval letter was dated July 28, one day after Tradeoffs reached out to state officials asking about John’s case.

As he read the news, John says, one word came to mind.

JW:  Survival. You know, it’s basic survival right there.

DG: John knows it will be a stretch to make that $145 last each month and he still expects to lean on food banks from time to time but he’s grateful for what he’s getting. 

As a token of his appreciation, John says the first thing he wanted to do with his new SNAP card was get a gift for Lori Ventura. 

LV: He offered to buy me a steak. But I’m a vegetarian. [Laughs]

DG: He says he’ll buy her a salad instead.

I’m Dan Gorenstein. This is Tradeoffs.